A system experiences shocks that occur in accordance with a poisson process having a rate of 1/hour.3/15/2024 ![]() This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.ĭata Availability: Data and code available at. Received: AugAccepted: FebruPublished: March 22, 2016Ĭopyright: © 2016 Mugler et al. ![]() University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, UNITED STATES (2016) Noise Expands the Response Range of the Bacillus subtilis Competence Circuit. What is the probability that a turbine satisfies the performance requirement?Ĭontacting the manufacturer of the sonic scanner, you find that actually they are not so sure about this 20% failure rate: it is based on a study where 4 of 5 fractures were detected.Citation: Mugler A, Kittisopikul M, Hayden L, Liu J, Wiggins CH, Süel GM, et al. The inspection method is not foolproof: it has a 20% chance of failing to detect a fracture that is there. You test 18 turbines for the required period T, and perform an inspection of the blades using a sonic scanner. One of the key performance characteristics is that the turbine blades do not, with high probability, develop micro-fractures beyond size X within an operation period T. ![]() Your company manufactures gas turbines for power stations. What is the probability that this total market is more than 55 refineries? The total market size for your new technology (Y) is therefore any refinery that currently doesn't meet EPA requirements plus any refinery that used technology X. You are convinced that a refinery that used technology X is as likely to buy your new technology (if you develop it) as a refinery that doesn't use any technology yet. ![]() ![]() Recently, a competing technology was brought in the market (technology X) that also helps refineries meet these emissions and quite a few refineries are already using this technology (before start of EPA requirements), but it is a lot more expensive. However, you only want to develop this technology further if there are at least 55 refineries in the US that could benefit from your technology. You are an R&D company, that is planning to commercialize a new technology for oil refineries to help them meet a new EPA NOx emission requirements that will come into effect 1 year from now. ![]()
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